tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13609842.post1092989009342341558..comments2021-03-31T09:28:19.132+01:00Comments on Now's the time: probabililty, readiness, anklesAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06972049290586377462noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13609842.post-24612330215801506062008-12-04T17:09:00.000+00:002008-12-04T17:09:00.000+00:00Thanks for comments. I had wondered, BB, whether ...Thanks for comments. I had wondered, BB, whether Thomas Bayes featured in The Drunkard's Walk. The quote very well illustrates the appeal of the theory.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06972049290586377462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13609842.post-85466368504624636702008-12-04T14:32:00.000+00:002008-12-04T14:32:00.000+00:00I like the idea of factoring in future beliefs. So...I like the idea of factoring in future beliefs. Sounds almost Alice in Wonderlandish - as does Postman's ankles. A delightful post.Dave Kinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08430484174826768488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13609842.post-68809466510677377132008-12-03T19:13:00.000+00:002008-12-03T19:13:00.000+00:00As a newcomer to Thomas Bayes, all of this sounds ...As a newcomer to Thomas Bayes, all of this sounds incredibly modern. Sometimes people on holiday unexpectedly bump into people they know from home. The modern science of sociology sees this as a highly predictable occurrence not a strange co-incidence. It would seem that Bayes predicted the sociologists as well.Lucashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07642126053527835870noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13609842.post-31166292817408563442008-12-03T17:14:00.000+00:002008-12-03T17:14:00.000+00:00You'll remember my recent enthusiastic post on "Th...You'll remember my recent enthusiastic post on "The Drunkard's Walk" a book about randomness by Leonard Mlodinow. Here's a quote:<BR/><BR/>"(Thomas Bayes invented) a theory of 'conditional probability... For example the probability that a randomly chosen person is mentally ill and the probability that a randomly chosen person believes his spouse can read his mind are both very low. But the probability that a person is mentally ill <EM>if</EM> he believes his spouse can read his mind is much higher, as is the probability that a person believes his spouse can read his mind <EM>if</EM> he is mentally ill."Roderick Robinsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16828395545197001637noreply@blogger.com